Best bets on Saturday, recaps on Friday

Friday was a wasted day at Tuley’s Takes home office as we dropped two NHL first-period unders but ended up paying more attention to basketball as we headed into another action-packed sports betting weekend.

We lost our best bet on Wild-Maple Leafs 1P Under 1.5 +115 as it looked good to start with no goals in the first 12 minutes but then both teams scored in the last 8 minutes to close the money lose (only to leave them goalless). in both the 2nd and 3rd periods before the Wild only won 2-1 in OT). We also lost our secondary game with Avalanche-Jets 1P Under 1.5 +110 as the Avalanche scored 4 goals in the first 20 minutes. But at least we didn’t have the under in the Kings-Clippers game. So let’s start with Friday night’s recaps and then look for better tunes for Saturday.

Flashback to Friday

NBA: Kings outlived Clippers 176-175 in 2OT late Friday in the second highest game in NBA history, as the Kings did it as a 6.5-point underdog on the street and +205 on the money line (the game flew over the final bet total of 239 by a whopping 112 points – with 67 points it was already over at 153-153 at the end of the rule!). Faves went 4-3 SU on Friday, Cavaliers-Hawks finished pick-’em but Dogs led 4-3 ATS with Thunder (+9.5) covering in a 124-115 loss to the Suns. The surprises came from the Knicks (+1 in 115-109 wins at Wizards), Hornets (+7 in 121-113 wins at Timberwolves) and Kings (+6.5 in 176-175 2OT wins at Clippers). Home teams went 5-3 SU and tied 4-4 ATS. Over/Under split 4-4.

More NBA: The Favorites lead 581-306 SU in the 14-game season ending pick-’em, but the Dogs still have a slim lead at 441-425-21 ATS (50.9%). Home teams lead 538-363 SU and 465-417-19 ATS (52.7%). In total overs stakes 453-434-14 (51.1%).

CBB: No. 16 Xavier led Seton Hall 82-60 as the only top-25 team in action on Friday night and was easily covered as a 1.5-point favorite on the road (just over the final betting total of 141 points).

NHL: The underdogs went 4-2 on Friday, with utter surprises by the Sabers (+170 in a 3-1 win at Panthers), Canadiens (+140 in a 5-2 win at Flyers), Kings (+115 in 3: 2 win at Islanders) and Avalanche (-105 in 5-1 win at Jets). Road teams also went 4-2. Unders led 4-2.

XFL (ICYMI): The favorites fell to 3-2 SU in the young season as St. Louis toppled 20-18 on Thursday night in Seattle as a 4-point underdog on the road to start Week 2 while the Dogs split after week 1 3-2 ATS Lead The home teams also fell to 3-2 SU while the road teams also took a 3-2 ATS lead. The early lead of the overs also dropped to 3-2.


Saturday XFL best bet

DC Defenders +4 at Vegas Vipers: This game reminds me a lot of St. Louis’ win over Seattle on Thursday night as we scored with a 1-0 team against a 0-1 team which worked well as the Battlehawks had cover even before driving a field Goal for 20-18 overall victory. Furthermore, just like that game (and with the Chiefs in the Super Bowl), Circa Sports opened DC as a short favorite while the rest of the world chalked up Vegas. Granted, the Vipers had a chance to force OT against Arlington, but they fell short and I’ll stick with the Defenders for holding Seattle. Also, this 34 over/under is the lowest of the season so far, so points should be a priority and make the +4 stronger.

Best NHL bet on Saturday

Ducks +1.5 +150 on hurricanes: We have no NHL 1P Over/Under games for Saturday as the top 1P Over teams (Canucks, Ducks, Flames) meet teams that play more 1P Under (Bruins, Hurricanes, Avalanche). So we’re going to go with the Ducks as the Swagger Play instead, since they were on a six-game losing streak with the Capitals on Thursday. Since we regret not betting on the money line when we put the Blackhawks on the puck line on Wednesday, but missed the +350 payout when they won straight out, let’s take a little look at the ML at +360 here .

NBA best bet on Saturday

Nuggets +2 on grizzlies: I’m not too keen on any dogs in Saturday college basketball (the lines seem a little short on the teams I considered, including Arkansas +7.5 in Alabama, Texas +3.5 in Baylor, Virginia +3 at North Carolina and Saint Mary’s +5 at Gonzaga) but I’m taking the nuggets in association as I think the wrong team is being favored. The Nuggets have 4 straight wins prior to the All-Star Break and 10-2 in their last 12. They’ve also won their last 4 against teams with winning records, while the Grizzlies have lost 10 of their last 14

Sunday XFL Best Bet

San Antonio Brahmas-Orlando Guardians under 39: We published this early in the VSiN newsletter and in the Thursday edition of this column, and now it’s mainly 38 and 38.5 (note: some books even go as far as 37.5). I still think it’s playable with those numbers as we haven’t seen enough with those 1, 2, 3 point conversion options to make “key numbers” for over/under bets in the XFL. As we saw in Thursday night’s game, it was pretty much a coin toss, so you’ll have to look for the best number, as every point (or 2 points, or 3) counts.

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